Why do the fertility rates in big city fall so sharply
Recently, National Health and Family Planning Commission (NHFPC) firstly disclosed relevant policies to allow all couples to have a second child are being considered. At present, twenty-nine provinces and municipalities have relaxed the one-child policy to allow couples to have a second baby if either parent is from a single-child family. Under such "second child alone" policy, 1.45 million couples have applied for giving birth to a second child, of which 1.39 million couples managed relevant procedures by the end of May 2015. It is indicated by the data that the will to give birth to a second child of the targeted population has decreased slightly.
It is reported by the press previously that according to the prediction of Beijing Municipal Commission of Health and Family Planning on the primary implementation of this new policy that over 50,000 new babies will be born in Beijing every year due to the new policy. However, things are not going as expected. From August to November,2014, the application in Beijing for only-child couples giving birth to a second child kept decreasing for four months in a row, which is still far lower than the anticipation even after the policy has been implemented for over a year up to now. About why the will of only-child couple to give birth to a second child is lower than the anticipation, Beijing Municipal Commission of Health and Family Planning gave its own explanation: the new policy will not work until 3~5 years since it is a course to transform from “have the will” to “give birth”.
The decrease of people’s wills to have a second child is the main reason for the unpopular of "second child alone" policy. Considered the fierce social competition and higher cost to raise a child, many Chinese young parents are not that brave to have a second child. In accordance with the Sixth Population Census, the current total fertility rate in China is lower to around 1.2, while the one in Beijing, Shanghai and other big cities is ever more lower—less than 1, which is below the replacement fertility of 2.1. However, one-child policy is not the only reason to cause such a low fertility. There are very clear economics research conclusions such as economic development, income and education level will obviously restrain people’s will to give birth. Even in countries never issuing any policy of family planning, more and more people gives up to have more children due to their own career development, child’s education, life quality, etc.
In the first decade of reform and opening up in China, one-child policy and GDP per capita have obvious influence on the sharp dropping of fertility.
In fact, in 1990’s, one-child policy almost have no influence on people with the fast development of economy; instead, the increasing GDP per capita and human capital restrained people’s will to give birth even more, of which direct indication is that the care and education cost soars during the course of raising the child.
A majority of the young men born at 1980’s ~1990’s is the only child who could give birth to a second child as the new policy regulated instead of being limited by it, but they do not have a strong desire to give birth since they are in the best time to promote their career to a higher level. It is just like Zhang Chewei, Director of the Institute of Population and Labor Economics, Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, said, “The non-only-child population could indeed benefit from the full opening of the new policy instead of the only-child couples.”
Most couples who are neither from the single-child family were born at 1970’s and are more willing to give birth to a second child since they have stronger and more stable economy strength compared with the one born at 1980’s and 1990’s. However, realizing the transformation from “have a will” to “give birth” and to “raise a child” finally is beyond human’s control. Because couples born at 1970’s are in a very late period of childbearing age and senile women are hard to get pregnant, there are too many wills of giving birth could not be realized. From this point of view, the adjustment of population policy means a lot to this group.
During the previous implementation of "second child alone" policy, the so-called large rebound of fertility is not realized. Is it possible to take more decisive and humanized measures such as domestic unified implementation, simplified in local and fulfill legal procedures during the following adjustment of population policy?
Published in the Beijing News
